First of all the disappointing points:
1)
Dividend:
0,15€/sh.
2)
EBITDA
guidance: >10M
3)
2016
EBITDA impacted by a 7M unexpected cost in a single project
About them:
About 1 and 2) I expected either an higher
dividend or an higher guidance (since cash investment should result in an
higher guidance). Unless this guidance is relative to attributable EBITDA (I
don’t think it is), this should mean they expect the small growth in sales to
be accompanied by a fall in EBITDA (excluding that 7M cost).
About 3) Since what matters to me is actual cash
generation (see the positive points below) this charge should make no
difference. It is a one off. The only thing I find strange is how can they have
an unexpected 7M cost in a single project? Somebody must have screwed up big.
And finally, the positives:
1)
Net
cash (as reported, I know it includes African debt) of 25,7M, which does not
include the 44M received of the IMS sale. Actual cash generation was 14,4M. As
such, net cash including the IMS should be about 69,7M. Which is 12,6 M above
what I expected
2)
They
totally froze the problem of African debt. As such, held to maturity investments
already fell 1,5M since June, and are now at 9,3M, 4,4M to be received in the
following 12 months. Things are improving in this point. I will quote from:
"Deixou de ser possível comprar
equipamentos a parceiros, pagá-los em dólares e depois receber em kwanzas ou em
meticais", diz o gestor, confirmando que a empresa irá continuar a ter
presença direta nestes países lusófonos "quando o pagamento é feito em euros
ou dólares". "Já recusámos projetos no valor de €20 milhões porque
não havia garantias. Não vamos trabalhar para perder dinheiro"
In English
(loose translation by myself): no more Kwanza or metical payments. Presence in
Angola and Mozambique will continue when payment is made in euro or dolar. 20M
in projects was already refused due to lack of guarantees. No working to lose
money.
And the updated
math:
Market cap 84M
Net cash: 69,7M
Enterprise
value: 14,3M
EV/EBITDA
guidance: 14,3/over 10= under 1.43
Disclaimer: I
own Novabase shares. I am and will be wrong. Always do your own research.
Always read the introduction post.
